The spread of COVID19 has caused global tension and had a huge and widespread impact on international affairs. A number of important diplomatic events have been cancelled, which of course leaves important issues on the back burner without timely discussion. However, technologies such as online video conferencing can also help us to some extent overcome difficulties: that we cannot discuss face to face, communicate on urgent and important issues such as joint efforts against coronavirus, and develop international cooperation. At the same time, the forced cancellation of some diplomatic activity is not all bad. Russia’s initiative to convene consultations among the heads of the five great powers at the UN General Assembly in 2020 may also be off the table, but what’s the point of sitting around and even bickering when the big shots lack a basic consensus on some major issues? Better to sit at home and have a cup of tea and think calmly about how to solve these big problems. 

Compared with many polite diplomatic activities, the COVID-19 outbreak is an “acute shock” to the world economy and the process of globalization, and its impact will be far-reaching and extensive. One is that the already slowing world economy will take a further hit, with many countries facing multiple risks of an oil price crisis, a financial crisis and recession. Second, there will be a large decline in international trade, and the global supply chain model is being more and more questioned. In the future, the trend of localization of production and supply chains will be strengthened, which will profoundly affect the picture of the globalized world after the end of the Cold War, and the scale and speed of the global free movement of goods, services and capital will be greatly reduced. Third, the large-scale cross-border personnel exchanges after the end of the Cold War may also encounter obstacles. Will the Schengen area still exist in the future? Will there be the flow of people within the EAEU continue? 

We have to worry that the global spread of COVID-19 is like a butterfly, and that it could cause hurricanes that are longer and stronger than we can currently predict.

（ Feng Yujun, Professor; Deputy Dean, Institute of International Studies; Director, Center for Russian and Central Asia Studies, Fudan University. ）