World Premier of The Belt and Road Initiative: 2018 Report on Five Connectivity Indexes at Taihe Civilizations Forum
25 Dec, 2018  |  Source:PKUIOR  |  Hits:1053

Fifth Anniversary of the Belt and Road Initiative: A Thorough Understanding Helps Push Forward Steadily

 "Five Connectivity Index" Research Group of Peking University 

On August 27, 2018, at the symposium marking the fifth anniversary of the Belt and Road Initiative, President Xi Jinping pointed out that as an international cooperation initiative attracting widespread attention, the Belt and Road Initiative has seen unexpected achievements in the past five years and has embarked on a new stage of steadily pushing forward. However, further efforts are needed to deepen and materialize Five Connectivity cooperation. As the basic cooperative framework of the Belt and Road Initiative, Five Connectivity refers to the practical cooperation between China and countries concerned in the following areas, namely, policy coordination, facilities connectivity, unimpeded trade, financial integration and people-to-people bond.

The "Five Connectivity Index" Research Group of Peking University releasesThe Belt and Road Initiative: Report on Five Connectivity Indexes every year in order to assess the development of the Belt and Road Initiative with quantitative data, to determine the development potential of the B&R Initiative with an comprehensive assessment report, to optimize the development direction of the B&R Initiative with concrete policy recommendations, and to provide an thorough understanding for those engaged in research, decision-making and execution of the Belt and Road Initiative.

Today, at Taihe Civilizations Forum, the "Five Connectivity Index" Research Group of Peking University makes the world premier ofThe Belt and Road Initiative: 2018 Report on Five Connectivity Indexes, which measures the overall level of development of 94 nations related to the Belt and Road Initiative in 2017. The findings are as follows. First, the overall linkage of Five Connectivity is conspicuous, reaching to the level of "Good Cooperation", which shows that generally the B&R Initiative construction is marching positively and that there is significant room for improvement. Second, the differentiation in the development of the Five Connectivity areas is significant, with the development of impeded trade ranking the first, the development of facilities connectivity the last, and the development of people-to-people bond, policy coordination and financial integration ranking in between. At the national level, the differentiation in the development of the Five Connectivity areas is also significant, and those nations show huge differences in Five Connectivity development. And third, the distribution chart of Five Connectivity level of those nations with China resembles the shape of a spindle, that is, the number of nations with extremely high and extremely low scores are small, and most nations are at a medium level. To be specific, a total of eleven nations reach the highest level of cooperation (i.e., smooth cooperation nations), namely, Russia, Singapore, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, Germany, Thailand, the United Kingdom, Mongolia, New Zealand, Australia and Indonesia. Russia, Singapore and Malaysia have been the top 3 for several years. With four nations included in smooth cooperation nations, Southeast Asia ranks the first in all regions in terms of smooth cooperation nations ratio. Developed nations of Europe and Oceania are marching fast in the ranking list. As the places of origination of the Belt and the Road respectively, Kazakhstan and Indonesia are performing stably. Some nations are making significant progress, which shows that the Belt and Road construction has really enhanced the inter-connectivity between China and related nations.

The Belt and Road Initiative: 2018 Report on Five Connectivity Indexes is a joint achievement by the "Five Connectivity Index" Research Group of Peking University and Taihe Institute, with third-party support from United Nations Industrial Development Organization International Solar Energy Center for Technology Promotion & Transfer. The leaders of the "Five Connectivity Index" Research Group of Peking University are Professor Wang Jimin and Professor Zhai Kun from Peking University, and the deputy leader is Doctor Chen Yiyuan from Peking University. Special thanks are given to Mr. Peng Binge from Taihe Institute and Ms. Lin Ziwei from United Nations Industrial Development Organization International Solar Energy Center for Technology Promotion & Transfer. The research group hope that, with the support of Taihe Institute, we can make the B&R Five Connectivity Indexes report into a more international, more professional and more dynamic public knowledge product which is authoritative and therefore can serve multiple stakeholders of the Belt and Road Initiative in a better way.

Body:

In the past five years, the number of nations and regions engaged in cooperation of the Belt and Road has been increasing, and the cooperation in Five Connectivity has been deepened and materialized. Based on changes of the real world, the research group expands the scope of measurement this year, optimizes the indicator system, and improves the methods of measurement. Based on the results of measurement, the research group classifies the inter-connectivity of Five Connectivity between China and 94 nations into five levels, namely, "smooth cooperation nations" (scoring 70 and above), "interconnected nations" (scoring 60 to 70), "good cooperation nations" (scoring 50 to 60), "nations of potential for cooperation" (scoring 40 to 50), and "nations of weak cooperation" (scoring below 40). generally speaking, the average score of connectivity of those countries with China is 55.25, reaching to the level of "good cooperation", which shows that shows that overall the B&R Initiative construction is marching positively and that there is significant room for improvement.

The distribution of Five Connectivity indexes of those nations with China clearly takes the shape of normal distribution (that is, small ends and big middle). In other words, the number of nations with extremely high and extremely low scores are small, and most nations are at a medium level. A total of eleven nations are included in smooth cooperation nations, namely, Russia, Singapore, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, Germany, Thailand, the United Kingdom, Mongolia, New Zealand, Australia and Indonesia.

Figure 1: Distribution chart of five categories of nations

Findings of the measurement:

1. Features of different areas

First, the levels of development in various "Connectivity" are quite different, and the differences of various nations are more conspicuous. In terms of level of overall development, the scores of impeded trade and people-to-people bond are relatively, reaching 12.36 and 12.34 respectively, while the scores of the other three indexes are all below 10. This shows that there are huge differences in the Five Connectivity areas. In terms of national dispersion degrees, the nations differs most significantly in the level of capital integration with the variance at 16.62, which shows that the nations differs greatly in the level of connectivity in financial areas. The dispersion degrees in the areas of policy coordination and people-to-people bond are at a medium level with the variance at nearly 10. And the dispersion degrees in the areas of impeded trade and facilities connectivity are relatively low. From this we can see that the differentiation in development of the B&R construction is becoming more and more conspicuous in terms of both the Five Connectivity areas and nations.

Figure 2: Comparison of means and variances of Tier I indicators

And second, the relevance among Five Connectivity indexes is conspicuous. People-to-people bond, financial integration and impeded trade are closely related to each other, while facilities connectivity is an index with low relevance to Five Connectivity links and policy coordination and impeded trade.

2. Features of the nations

Based on the scores of the 94 nations in Five Connectivity, the research report classifies those nations into eight categories, namely, nations of generally smooth cooperation, nations with great potential, nations with huge strength in a single area, nations of equal potential in all areas, nations of financial weakness, nation of facilities weakness, nation of policy weakness, and nations to be strengthened in cooperation.

Table 1: Analysis of nations in groups

Category

Number

Nations

Nations of generally smooth cooperation

19

United Arab Emirates, Belarus, Poland, Germany, Russia, Kazakhstan, Netherlands, Qatar, Malaysia, Mongolia, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Spain, Singapore, Hungary, United Kingdom, Vietnam.

Nations to be strengthened in cooperation

12

Algeria, Papua New Guinea, Palestine, Bhutan, Timor-Leste, cook islands, Moldova, Samoa, Tonga, the Republic of Vanuatu, Syria, Yemen Republic.

Five Connectivity Indexes of Nations along the B&R in 2018

I. Indicator system

The indicator system of Five Connectivity Indexes of Nations along the B&R in 2018 includes five Tier I indicators, fifteen Tier II indicators and forty-five Tier III indicators, as illustrated in Table 2.

Table 2: Indicator system of Five Connectivity Indexes (2018)

Tier I indicator

Tier II indicator

Tier III indicator

A. Policy coordination

A1. Basis of cooperation

A11. Frequency of high-level exchanges

A12. International cooperation mechanism under the framework of B&R Initiative

A13. Number of embassies and consulates in China

A2. Political mutual trust

A21. Political stability

A22. Partnership

A23. Management of territorial disputes

A3. Achievements of cooperation

A31. Strategic interfaces under the framework of B&R Initiative

A32. Documents signed under the framework of B&R Initiative

A33. Effectiveness of policy coordination

B. Facilities connectivity

B1. Transport facilities

B11. Quality of the overall infrastructures

B12. Level of connectivity of transport facilities

B13. Level of connectivity of China-Europe Railway Express

B2. Communications facilities

B21. Popularity of Internet

B22. IT level and communications technology level

B23. Infrastructure level of bilateral communications

B3. Energy facilities

B31. Oil transmission capacity

B32. Natural gas transmission capacity

B33. Electric power transmission capacity

C. Unimpeded trade

C1. Trade environment

C11. Trade barrier

C12. Investment barrier

C13. Business environment

C2. Level of unimpeded trade

C21. Convenience of bilateral trade

C22. Total bilateral trade volume

C23. Total bilateral investment volume

C3. Production capacity cooperation

C31. Projects contracted by China in foreign countries

C32. China foreign labor cooperation

C33. Labor force market control

D. Financial integration

D1. Financial cooperation

D11.Cooperation currency exchange

D12. Cooperation in financial regulation

D13. Cooperation among development banks

D14. Cooperation among commercial banks

D2. Credit system

D21. Credit convenience

D22. Standardization of credit markets

D3. Financial environment

D31. Total savings

D32. Size of public debts

D33. Currency robustness

E. People-to-people bond

E1. Tourist activities

E11. Popularity of tourist destinations

E12. Number of tourists to China

E13. Convenience of tourist visa

E2. Exchanges in science and education

E21. Scientific and developmental cooperation

E22. Number of foreign students in China

E3. Unofficial exchanges

E31. Enthusiasm of host nations

E32. Number of friendly cities

E33. Public opinion intercommunication

E34. Level of friendliness of the mass

II. Results of measurement (see Table 3) 

Table 3: Rankings and Scores of Nations along the Belt and Road in terms of Five Connectivity       

Category

Ranking

Nation

Policy coordination

Facilities connectivity

Unimpeded trade

Financial integration

People-to-people bond

Total Score

Smooth cooperation nation

1

Russia

18.07

18.52

15.47

16.11

18.07

86.24

2

Singapore

13.18

11.72

19.83

18.86

16.33

79.94

3

Malaysia

12.02

11.57

18.40

16.28

16.31

74.59

4

Kazakhstan

17.00

12.42

15.78

15.31

14.00

74.52

5

Germany

11.09

14.16

17.50

13.41

18.24

74.40

6

Thailand

13.74

10.30

14.57

16.63

18.31

73.56

7

UK

10.66

11.00

13.57

18.44

18.17

71.84

8

Mongolia

15.68

12.49

14.32

15.17

13.77

71.43

9

New Zealand

12.60

9.26

16.50

16.64

15.91

70.91

10

Australia

7.07

9.18

17.50

18.72

18.16

70.63

11

Indonesia

11.69

9.60

14.18

18.13

16.73

70.33

Interconnected nation

12

Cambodia

17.97

8.62

14.32

13.39

14.73

69.04

13

Pakistan

16.92

8.61

13.35

15.36

14.69

68.93

14

Hungary

16.55

10.60

12.69

15.47

13.20

68.51

15

the Netherlands

10.41

13.36

16.75

12.16

15.71

68.39

16

Vietnam

12.88

10.38

14.60

13.18

17.17

68.21

17

Poland

16.01

13.09

13.61

11.68

13.67

68.05

18

Turkey

12.32

12.79

12.75

15.63

14.24

67.75

19

United Arab Emirates

10.76

11.48

13.89

16.95

13.20

66.29

20

Italy

11.98

9.28

15.25

11.84

16.86

65.21

21

France

9.99

12.84

12.24

12.19

17.83

65.10

22

Spain

11.73

13.78

13.50

10.67

15.40

65.08

23

the Philippines

11.79

9.49

14.59

12.79

15.00

63.66

24

Qatar

11.65

10.35

15.38

14.67

11.34

63.38

25

Laos

16.32

7.83

13.02

11.49

14.31

62.96

26

Ukraine

12.09

12.20

10.84

12.71

14.80

62.64

27

Switzerland

12.38

8.33

10.68

15.31

15.09

61.78

28

Belarus

15.84

11.40

10.62

13.19

10.68

61.72

29

Iran

11.38

14.45

12.12

8.90

14.15

61.00

30

Belgium

9.81

9.99

14.83

11.95

14.35

60.94

31

Serbia

17.24

9.55

12.26

9.45

12.36

60.87

32

India

6.47

9.91

14.03

14.47

15.52

60.40

Good cooperation nation

33

Sweden

8.15

9.99

14.71

11.52

14.88

59.25

34

Saudi Arabia

10.69

13.43

16.30

6.85

11.75

59.03

35

Czech Republic

15.57

12.68

9.44

10.08

11.18

58.95

36

Sri Lanka

11.84

8.73

13.84

9.70

14.43

58.54

37

Israel

7.59

10.83

14.34

10.88

14.44

58.07

38

Ireland

9.63

10.06

14.44

10.68

13.09

57.91

39

Morocco

10.66

7.75

12.16

12.70

14.24

57.51

40

Myanmar

12.57

14.02

11.61

6.33

12.85

57.38

41

Nepal

12.23

7.99

12.21

10.40

14.41

57.24

42

Kuwait

12.19

11.32

14.08

10.74

8.48

56.80

43

Uzbekistan

14.92

10.10

10.99

10.06

10.61

56.69

44

Kyrgyzstan

15.04

8.05

11.83

9.65

11.77

56.35

45

Denmark

9.64

9.93

13.77

7.87

14.72

55.92

46

Austria

12.63

9.87

12.59

6.79

14.02

55.90

47

Tajikistan

12.23

8.04

11.11

14.54

9.95

55.86

48

Egypt

11.15

9.17

10.67

9.95

14.77

55.70

49

Lithuania

11.85

9.18

12.07

10.61

10.20

53.92

50

Romania

11.45

8.36

13.43

7.65

12.37

53.25

51

Bulgaria

12.48

9.60

12.32

6.99

11.78

53.17

52

Georgia

10.76

9.88

13.62

8.04

10.67

52.97

53

Oman

13.17

12.16

13.00

5.76

8.72

52.81

54

Armenia

10.37

9.57

10.96

11.17

10.72

52.79

55

Norway

8.80

9.00

14.12

7.60

13.23

52.75

56

Finland

9.05

10.04

12.20

7.24

13.96

52.49

57

Iceland

7.98

8.68

10.66

13.20

11.74

52.25

58

Luxembourg

8.71

9.77

12.69

10.75

9.98

51.89

59

Bangladesh

9.93

9.29

13.35

7.39

11.93

51.89

60

Greece

12.03

8.41

11.87

5.51

14.04

51.85

61

Estonia

12.11

11.00

11.34

6.64

9.68

50.77

62

Bahrain

6.35

10.88

12.60

10.63

10.17

50.64

Nation of potential for cooperation

63

Croatia

12.70

9.16

10.18

6.08

11.30

49.42

64

Latvia

11.56

8.80

11.60

7.01

10.41

49.39

65

Slovakia

11.92

11.57

8.78

6.36

10.42

49.05

66

Malta

7.80

9.15

13.66

9.75

8.57

48.93

67

Slovenia

12.96

9.54

11.12

5.28

9.98

48.89

68

Portugal

9.97

8.46

9.16

7.63

13.12

48.33

69

Maldives

11.39

9.12

9.22

5.27

13.13

48.13

70

Jordan

7.48

8.83

14.26

5.72

11.76

48.05

71

Turkmenistan

11.97

10.88

10.30

5.07

9.78

48.00

72

Albania

10.89

8.88

10.20

9.36

8.35

47.67

73

Montenegro

12.54

8.41

12.33

6.18

8.10

47.55

74

Cyprus

8.19

8.92

11.94

10.02

8.38

47.44

75

Azerbaijan

9.17

10.19

10.90

6.47

10.45

47.18

76

Bosnia and Herzegovina

11.60

7.88

10.12

6.47

9.90

45.97

77

Fiji

10.23

5.69

10.82

5.77

12.69

45.21

78

Brunei

5.43

8.80

9.96

8.16

11.60

43.96

79

Afghanistan

11.11

7.74

9.32

6.18

9.03

43.38

80

Iraq

6.14

9.87

12.41

4.50

9.68

42.60

81

Lebanon

8.74

7.28

10.35

5.11

10.34

41.82

82

Macedonia

11.01

8.53

8.30

5.64

7.20

40.68

83

Algeria

7.69

6.33

11.53

4.50

10.02

40.07

Nation of weak cooperation

84

Moldova

9.51

8.72

7.72

6.17

7.63

39.75

85

Samoa

7.89

5.99

9.98

5.31

9.68

38.84

86

Papua New Guinea

6.94

5.19

11.76

6.65

8.17

38.71

87

Vanuatu

7.59

5.89

9.78

6.31

8.95

38.51

88

Timor-Leste

8.83

6.28

10.19

5.57

6.87

37.74

89

Tonga

7.76

6.24

7.70

5.59

9.75

37.04

90

Bhutan

3.60

6.19

10.59

5.35

9.18

34.90

91

Syria

5.99

7.14

7.54

3.45

10.75

34.87

92

Yemen Republic

4.80

7.14

10.67

3.84

8.34

34.78

93

Palestine

4.80

7.42

6.20

4.15

9.23

31.79

94

the Cook Islands

5.44

5.81

5.66

4.91

4.09

25.90

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