Civil nuclear power cooperation is another potential area for the US to push back against Chinese companies. In 2014, Chinese President Xi Jinping put forward the “1+2+3” framework of cooperation with the Arab countries, and “civil nuclear power” is one of the new frontiers. In recent years, South Korea intensified its civil nuclear cooperation with the UAE, while Russia has close civil nuclear ties with Egypt and Turkey. China is keen on cooperation with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Algeria and Iran. The US is hypersensitive to China’s civil nuclear cooperation both with US friends and foes.
In terms of cooperation in outer space, China’s Beidou navigation satellite system has broken the monopoly of the US GPS in the Middle East, and Beijing has laid a foundation for cooperation with Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt and Tunisia, amongst others, which perturbs Washington. The China-Arab States BDS/GNSS Center, the first overseas center for China’s indigenous Beidou Navigation Satellite System was officially inaugurated in Tunisia in 2018, causing anxiety in the US as well. Finally, China’s 25-year strategic investment in energy cooperation with Tehran may nullify the long-arm jurisdiction of US sanctions and maximum pressure on Iran.As long-simmering US–China tensions come to a boil, “a sweeping 25-year bilateral accord being negotiated between Beijing and Tehran is ringing alarms in Washington”, as the Western media observed.
III. Sino-US Strategic Competition Won’t Bring a New Cold War
However, for the foreseeable future Sino-US conflicts in the Middle East are still under control. There may be sporadic conflict, but this won’t rise to become a systematic “cold war”. Let us delve into the reasons why. First, China and the US have different political systems, yet there is no ideological rivalry in the Middle East. Instead, both the US and China seek pragmatic policies and focus on their respective practical interests. It is not on China’s foreign policy’s agenda to export “communism” or “socialism”. The United States has maintained an alliance system in the Middle East ranging from the Gulf to the Red Sea and Mediterranean, while China implements “partnership” diplomacy, which does not target any parties, including the US. Thus, China lacks a monolithic sphere of influence like the US.
Second, unlike the US-Soviet Cold War that resulted in two parallel and separate economic blocs, today both China and the US belong to a unified global market, and the Middle East is part of the world system. Neither China nor the US regards the Middle East as an area of vital interest, and Sino-US strategic rivalry is mostly in the Asia-Pacific region. The Middle East remains secondary and both sides may be prone to compromise. Thus, under the framework of the BRI, China does not have the capability or willingness to build another economic bloc beyond the US-led international institutions. In fact, the BRI and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank are supplementary institutions of the current international economic institutions, not a substitute for them. Whereas the US seeks collective defense and alliance politics, China adheres to collective security and “zero-enemy” policies. As Chinese President Xi Jinping said, China seeks no proxies, no spheres of influence and no filling of power vacuums.
Third, different from the relatively symmetric US-Soviet relations, Chinese and US influence in the Middle East is asymmetric. As a developing country, China is much weaker both in hard power and in soft power. China’s overall influence is less significant than the US in the Middle East, and US geopolitical and military predominance will not be challenged in the foreseeable future. The US military presence is conducive to the regional public security goods, which serves China’s commercial interests.
Fourth, the security partners of the United States in the Middle East, such as the GCC countries, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Israel and Turkey are simultaneously pivots of China’s political and economic partners. To these countries, it’s an ideal choice to keep a balance of power: they are able to rely on the US in security cooperation while maintaining important trade and energy cooperation with China (as well as India, Japan and South Korea) for energy supply and demand. By “putting their eggs into different baskets”, these partners can maintain congenial ties with both China and the US, keeping a geopolitical and geo-economic equilibrium between the West and the East instead of hedging their bets between China and the US. For most Middle Eastern countries, “looking west” for security and “looking east for economy” are compatible with each other. Beijing has highlighted that its economic engagement in the Middle East is compatible with US security engagement in the Middle East.
IV. Strengthening Sino-US Cooperation in the New Era
The Middle East is littered with so many problems that it can’t afford another vicious cycle of great-power rivalry. In fact, as China basically pursues geo-economic interests of trade, investment and energy, the US sustains its geopolitical interests of safeguarding regional leadership, launching anti-terror campaigns, and defending allies in the Middle East. Notwithstanding this, the two sides share compatible and complementary interests in Middle East security governance and conflict de-escalation, which forges structural dynamics for Beijing and Washington to seek common ground while shelving differences in the vicissitude of this troubled region.
First, China and the US are complementary partners and they do share an important interest, namely maintaining peace and security in the region. As permanent members of the UN Security Council, both China and the US support the UN peacekeeping missions in Darfur, Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, Lebanon, the Golan Heights, and Western Sahara. Neither China nor the US have troops on the ground in Libya or Yemen, and both want to see the peaceful settlement of conflicts in Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen and Libya. “ISIS”, Al-Qaeda and their affiliates have posed potential threats to both US military predominance and Chinese investments and expatriates. Both China and the US have military bases in Djibouti and they are co-existing peacefully, regularly engaging in joint military rehearsals for anti-piracy and escorting commercial ships in Somali waters. The two sides should have joint naval convoys in the Gulf as well. Beijing and Washington may restart the bilateral consultation mechanism on Middle East affairs which was established in 2012. Countries in the Middle East, including those in the GCC, do not necessarily need to take sides or seek favoritist policies towards China and the US, if the two economic and military giants can manage their disputes.
Second, allies of the US have established interdependent energy and economic relations with China so that it is
